Climate Wars

- Understand how climate change contributes to modern conflicts and affects peace and security


- Locate examples of climate-linked tensions on a world map


- Analyze the connections between climate pressures and conflict


- Recognize global patterns in climate-related conflicts

### Preparation


**Facilitator Study:**


- Familiarize yourself thoroughly with the facilitator guide


- Read background on each conflict case


- Understand the climate mechanisms linking climate to conflict


- Review fact sheets on climate impacts


**Materials Setup:**


- Print or display the Peters projection world map (shows true size proportions; crucial for visibility of Global South)


- Prepare conflict case cards with brief descriptions


- Have markers and sticky notes ready


- Set up whiteboard for capturing information


- Have a timer ready for each activity phase


- Optional: Test video links if using media instead of cards


**Why Peters Projection Map?**


- Standard Mercator projection makes Northern countries appear much larger


- Peters projection shows true geographical size


- Critical for recognizing that Global South faces disproportionate conflict risks


- Decolonizes mapmaking


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## A. Warm-Up Question (5 minutes)


Frame the activity and activate prior knowledge.


**Question to Pose:**


Write or ask aloud:


> "When the climate changes more, what things will people argue or fight about?"


**Activity:**


- Have participants write quick ideas on sticky notes


- Stick them to a board or wall


- Quickly review ideas to see what people think


**Expected Themes:**


- Water and food scarcity


- Land disputes


- Resource competition


- Migration and displacement


- Border conflicts


- Economic collapse


- Power and inequality


**Facilitator Note:**


Don't judge or correct responses. This activates their thinking and shows what they already consider possible.


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## B. Conflict Case Study (15 minutes)


Introduce the conflict analysis task and form groups.


**Group Formation:**


- Form groups of 2-4 participants


- Assign one conflict case per group


- Provide case cards with information (or show videos)


**Instructions to Groups:**


> "Your group has been assigned a conflict case. Read it carefully and discuss these questions:


> 1. What's causing the conflict?


> 2. Which groups or countries are involved?


> 3. How is it linked to climate change?


> 4. What are people fighting over?"


**Guiding Questions for Analysis:**


Help groups think systematically by asking them to consider how climate change connects to:


- **How people work and live:** Agriculture, pastoralism, fishing, industry dependent on certain conditions


- **How we use energy:** Dependence on hydropower, fossil fuels, energy systems


- **How climate change makes weather extreme:** Droughts, floods, temperature shifts affecting livelihoods


- **How the economy works:** Trade, development models, inequality in resources


**Possible Conflict Cases** (examples from facilitator materials):


1. **The Sahel Region (West Africa)**


- Climate: Severe, recurring droughts


- Conflict: Competition between pastoralists and farmers; farmer-herder conflicts


- Resources: Water, pasture, arable land


- Impact: Displacement, migration, regional instability


2. **Syria (2006-2015)**


- Climate: Historic drought (2006-2010)


- Impact: Crop failure, rural migration to cities, unemployment


- Conflict: Contributing factor to Syrian civil war


- Mechanism: Economic stress → political instability → conflict


3. **South Sudan**


- Climate: Droughts and floods affecting agriculture


- Conflict: Competition over pasture and water between groups


- Resources: Livestock, water, land


- Impact: Recurring famines, displacement


4. **Northern India/Pakistan Border**


- Climate: Glacier melting, changing water availability


- Conflict: Competition over water from Indus River system


- Resources: Agricultural water, hydropower


- Complexity: Existing geopolitical tensions + climate stress


5. **Central America/Mexico**


- Climate: Drought affecting agriculture (coffee, corn, beans)


- Conflict: Economic collapse → gang violence, migration


- Resources: Farmland, food security, livelihood


- Impact: Migration pressures, violence, instability


6. **Somalia/Horn of Africa**


- Climate: Recurring droughts, desertification


- Conflict: Pastoral resource conflicts, piracy as economic response


- Resources: Pasture, water, fish stocks


- Impact: State collapse, humanitarian crises


**Group Work Facilitation:**


- Circulate between groups


- Listen to their analysis


- Ask clarifying questions: "Why did that happen?" "Who had power?" "Who decided?"


- Help them see climate as a "threat multiplier"—it amplifies existing tensions


- Note interesting points for whole-group discussion


**Time Management:**


- Set a 15-minute timer


- Give 2-minute warning for transition


- Help groups wrap up their thinking


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## C. Putting It on the Map (15 minutes)


Groups present findings and plot conflicts on the world map.


**Presentation Structure:**


**For each conflict case, groups share:**


1. **Location:** Point to it on the Peters map


2. **The conflict:** Brief description (1-2 minutes)


3. **Climate connection:** How climate change contributes


4. **Resources:** What people are fighting over


5. **Groups involved:** Who are the main actors?


**Ask as they present:**


- "Which countries are involved?"


- "What's the climate mechanism?"


- "What resources are scarce?"


- "Who has power in this situation?"


**Documentation:**


- Write group's conflict name on the map at location


- Use markers to indicate resources in dispute


- Create legend if needed (colors for water conflicts vs. land, etc.)


- Note arrows showing migration or displaced peoples


**Building the Picture:**


As conflicts accumulate on the map, patterns begin to emerge:


- Is there a geographic pattern?


- Which regions appear most affected?


- Which resources appear in multiple conflicts?


- Do wealthier regions have fewer climate conflicts?


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## D. Discussion and Pattern Recognition (15 minutes)


Facilitate whole-group discussion on what the map reveals.


**Question 1: Geographic Patterns**


> "Do you see any patterns in the groups affected by climate conflicts? Are some regions more affected than others?"


**Expected Observations:**


- Global South faces disproportionate burden


- Tropical and arid regions especially vulnerable


- Regions with existing poverty/conflict more affected


- Former colonial areas often in crisis


- Wealthy nations less affected by direct climate conflict


**Question 2: Responsibility and Impact Gap**


> "Look at who emitted the most CO2 (from Method 3.1). Now look at where the conflicts are. Do you notice anything?"


**Expected Analysis:**


- Wealthy countries caused emissions; poor countries experience conflict


- Historical responsibility doesn't match current impacts


- Climate change amplifies existing inequalities


- This is a justice issue


**Question 3: Root Causes**


> "Looking at these conflicts, what's really causing them? Is it the climate, or is it something else?"


**Nuanced Discussion:**


- Climate is a "threat multiplier" or "trigger," not sole cause


- Underlying causes often include:


- Poverty and inequality


- Poor governance


- Weak institutions


- Historical conflict and mistrust


- Economic inequality


- Colonial legacies


- Power imbalances


- Climate amplifies these pre-existing vulnerabilities


**Question 4: Solutions**


> "What can we do to prevent climate conflicts? What can we do to solve these ones?"


**Solution Categories:**


1. **Climate action:** Reduce emissions to prevent further warming


2. **Adaptation:** Help vulnerable regions adapt to impacts


3. **Justice:** Address underlying inequalities and injustice


4. **Peace-building:** Address root conflicts and grievances


5. **Resource sharing:** Build cooperation over shared resources


6. **Governance:** Strengthen institutions and rule of law


7. **Economic development:** Create alternatives to conflict


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## E. Closing Debrief and Link Forward (5 minutes)


**Summary Points:**


- Climate change is creating conflicts now, not just a future threat


- Vulnerable regions are least responsible but most affected


- Conflicts multiply when climate stress hits existing tensions


- Prevention requires both climate action AND justice work


**Facilitation Note:**


> "This is heavy material. These are real conflicts with real suffering. But knowing about them is important—it helps us understand why climate action isn't just environmental. It's also about peace, security, and justice."


**Link Forward:**


> "In our final module, we'll look at what we can do about this. As citizens, as communities, as individuals—what power do we have to create change?"


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## Key Learning Points to Highlight


- Climate change is a threat multiplier that amplifies existing conflicts


- Conflicts over water, food, and land will increase with climate impacts


- The Global South, least responsible for emissions, faces greatest conflict risk


- Climate conflicts are happening now, not just in the future


- Preventing climate conflicts requires both emissions reduction and justice


- Understanding climate-conflict links shows why climate action is urgent and necessary


## Why This Method Works


- Real cases ground abstract concepts in reality


- Visual mapping creates collective understanding


- Pattern analysis develops critical thinking


- Systemic analysis (climate + inequality + conflict) is more accurate than single-cause thinking


- Discussion builds awareness and concern


## Modifications


### Case Selection


- **Choose cases relevant to participants' regions** for local connection


- **Include recent cases** to show this is happening now


- **Mix obvious (Syria) with less-known cases** to broaden perspective


- **Include cases from multiple world regions** to avoid stereotyping


### Presentation Format


- **Case cards:** Written descriptions (good for literacy, allows independent work)


- **Videos:** Short clips (15-30 sec) showing conflict impact (more engaging, emotional)


- **Documentary excerpts:** Longer, richer context (requires more time)


- **Facilitator presentation:** You present cases, groups analyze (faster, less independent)


### Time Variations


- **Short version (35 min):** Skip some cases; fewer regions; basic discussion


- **Standard (50 min):** As described


- **Extended (75-90 min):** More cases; deeper analysis; expert inputs; extensive discussion


### Difficulty Adaptations


- **Basic:** 3-4 simple, obvious cases (Syria); focus on climate connection


- **Intermediate:** 5-6 cases; analyze mechanisms; discuss causation


- **Advanced:** 8+ cases; complex causal analysis; policy discussion; debate on solutions


### Trauma Sensitivity


- **Important:** Some participants may be from regions with current conflicts


- Be aware of war trauma in the group


- Exclude examples from countries of participants if possible


- Allow people to step out if needed


- Debrief emotionally as well as analytically


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## Notes for Facilitator


Be trauma sensitive. When choosing this method, be aware of war traumas within the group and exclude examples from the countries of your participants where possible.


**On the Peters Projection Map:**


The most common world map (Mercator projection) shows European and Northern countries bigger than they actually are. Use the Peters projection map with the real size of countries in the South and North. With this map, we can see more clearly how big the problems from climate conflicts are in the world.


**Bridge to Module 4:**


This method bridges well into exercises showing global, national, and local ways of democratic participation. After understanding the problem, participants are ready to learn about solutions and their own agency.


**Managing Emotions:**


- Acknowledge that this is difficult material


- Validate emotional responses


- Don't ask for immediate solutions or fix-it ideas


- Close with hope—possibility and agency come in Module 4


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## Related Methods


- **Follows:** Method 3.2 (Global System Mapping) for systemic understanding


- **Follows:** Method 3.3 (Climate Inequality Walk) for human impact perspective


- **Bridges to:** Module 4 (Active Citizenship) on what can be done


- **Standalone:** Can be taught separately if focusing on peace/conflict


## Extension Activities


### If You Have More Time


- **Research Assignment:** Groups research a current climate conflict and report back


- **Policy Analysis:** What international agreements address climate conflicts?


- **Regional Focus:** Deep dive into one conflict region


- **Solution Design:** What would a just, sustainable resolution look like for one conflict?

**Facilitator Study:**


- Familiarize yourself thoroughly with the facilitator guide


- Read background on each conflict case


- Understand the climate mechanisms linking climate to conflict


- Review fact sheets on climate impacts


**Materials Setup:**


- Print or display the Peters projection world map (shows true size proportions; crucial for visibility of Global South)


- Prepare conflict case cards with brief descriptions


- Have markers and sticky notes ready


- Set up whiteboard for capturing information


- Have a timer ready for each activity phase


- Optional: Test video links if using media instead of cards


**Why Peters Projection Map?**


- Standard Mercator projection makes Northern countries appear much larger


- Peters projection shows true geographical size


- Critical for recognizing that Global South faces disproportionate conflict risks


- Decolonizes mapmaking


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